SOME ASPECTS OF CLIMATIC FACTORS EFFECTS ON LAND MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY

Economic efficiency of agricultural production largely depends on nature and climate conditions of farming. Thereby, quite burning is the issue of providing sustainability in agrarian production that can be resolved with science-based forecasting and planning. The paper shows global changes in the sphere of food production in the world and our country, the trends of recent years; it determines the forecasting for perspective. Accounting for these predictions, the issues of increased land management efficiency are examined under the conditions of climate considerable effects on the agrarian production efficiency. Following the data of the analysis in time series of meteorological observations over the amount of rainfalls and mean daily temperatures, it was for the first time scientifically proved that there exist cyclic repeats in climatic conditions and coincidence of these cycles periods with grain crops productivity variations. The paper shows that land management efficiency depends on two composite components. The first component determines a long-term tendency, depends upon technique and technology development and has a positive trend. The second one is unsustainable, cyclic and generated by climatic changes. These two comparison-based composite components are the foundation of mathematical model construction to forecast grain crops productivity on the basis of the trend and regression equations. The paper shows the way the model can be applied to design a separate land management industry on the level of a certain region. The examinations resulted in recommendations devising to stabilize the development of crop production industries in agriculture resting on increased technological level of the industries and decreased effects of natural risks on the land management efficiency

climatic factors, crop production efficiency, autocorrelation coefficient, trend, regression model, productivity forecasting

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